Ukraine notes that Belarus has recently been developing many activities along the border with Ukraine. For instance, part of the Belarusian army has been moved to the border with Ukraine, and Ukrainians observe Belarusian helicopters conducting mock attacks on Ukraine. They turn around just before the border.

Better, however, is that Belarus is enabling the Russians to send drones from Belarus to Ukraine.

That fact could, of course, provoke a counterattack from Ukraine.

It seems that this is Belarus's intention.

However, it is also possible that Belarus is doing just enough to keep the Russians satisfied and just too little to risk a counterattack from Ukraine. It is a dangerous game, in which the border is constantly being pushed a little further, and then you run the risk of a full-blown war suddenly breaking out. There is a chance that an uprising will break out in Belarus and suddenly everything will look very different. That could turn out to be very troublesome for Russia, because if that uprising occurs accompanied by an invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine could potentially gain access to Russian nuclear bombs. That seems to me like an attractive military target for Ukraine.

If I were a Ukrainian military strategist, I would prepare and execute a major attack in Belarus as soon as Belarus goes just a little too far. The main goal would then be to rally the Belarusian population in an uprising against their regime and to get hold of the nuclear weapons that the Russians have moved to Belarus.

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